The Most Powerful Question in Any Negotiation
What happens if we don’t agree?
In October 2025, the United States and China each gave a very public answer.
On 9 October, China announced sweeping new controls on exports of rare earths and related technology, materials that are essential to everything from electric cars to fighter jets, and which China dominates. The next day, President Trump threatened additional tariffs of 100% on Chinese goods.
Three weeks later, on 30 October, Trump and Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea. The US cut its tariffs on Chinese goods by ten percentage points. China agreed to suspend its new rare earth controls for a year and to resume purchases of American soybeans.
Most coverage called it a truce. That’s accurate. But it’s also a textbook example of something negotiators call BATNA: your Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement.
Your BATNA is what you can do if talks fail. The stronger it is, the less you need the other side, and the more they need to offer you. China showed that its alternative to a deal included squeezing supplies the US couldn’t quickly replace. The US showed that its alternative included tariffs that would hurt China’s exporters. Each side learned how painful no-deal would really be, and a deal suddenly became possible.
Here’s the counterintuitive lesson. The agreement didn’t come from finding common ground. It came from both sides getting a clearer picture of the cost of not having one.
Marta Skarbek’s This is Negotiation treats BATNA as a core part of preparation. It argues that you should work out your own alternatives, and estimate the other side’s, before you ever sit down. It also warns about overplaying your hand, because a bluff that gets called can leave you weaker than when you started.
If you’re in a negotiation right now, could you say exactly what your BATNA is? And do you know theirs?
This is Negotiation by Marta Skarbek: https://a.co/d/0a7z6xLx
#Negotiation, #BATNA, #Leverage, #USChina, #TradeWar, #RareEarths, #Strategy, #DealMaking, #Geopolitics, #BusinessSkills, #ThisIsNegotiation, #MartaSkarbek
Want more like this?
Get an occasional email when there’s something new worth reading. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
By subscribing you agree to receive occasional emails about new releases. Unsubscribe anytime by replying to any email.
